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Language: English

Conflict of Interest: In relation to this article, we declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Publication history: Received October 16, 2010
Accepted January 19, 2011

This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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A new forecasting method for system marginal prices based on power supply and demand

Kee Jun Lee Tae Hwan Lee Lae-Hyun Kim¹ Yeong Koo Yeo^†

Department of Chemical Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Korea ¹Department of Chemical Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 135-743, Korea

Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering, July 2011, 28(7), 1505-1510(6), 10.1007/s11814-011-0017-5

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Abstract

A new forecasting scheme is presented of short-term system marginal price (SMP) using past data on power supply and demand as well as past cost data. The forecasting of SMP is one of the most significant factors in an electricity market in which power is produced by generators, transmitted by transmission companies, and distributed by suppliers according to new trading agreements. The accurate forecasting of SMP can significantly influence the profit of market participants. In this paper, a new methodology for day-ahead SMP forecasting is proposed using the law of supply and demand on power. The salient feature of the proposed approach is that it exhibits excellent predicting performance in short-term forecasting.

Keywords

System Marginal Price (SMP) Price Forecasting Short-term Forecasting

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