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산업연관분석에 의한 석유화학공업의 기획: 제I보

Planning of the Korean Petrochemical Industry by Input-output Analysis: Part I

HWAHAK KONGHAK, June 1975, 13(3), 119-132(14), NONE
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Abstract

산업연관분석에 의하여 한국의 석유화학공업의 중장기전망을 하였다. 한국은행에서 작성한 1970년 산업연관표(56부문)를 토대로 하여 비석유화학부문을 재조사하고, 새로이 64개 부문의 주요석유화학품을 첨가하여 총 90부문의 균형표를 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982년에 대하여 각각 작성하고, 전자계산기를 이용하여 4개의 90×90행렬을 처리하였다. 여기서 석유화학공업이 타산업분문에 대하여 주고 받는 영향을 나타내기 위하여 영향력계수, 감응도계수, 유발계수 등을 수학적으로 정의하였을 뿐만 아니라, 1974, 1978, 1982년의 각 산업분야의 총 산충액을 1970년 불변가격 또는 물량(MT)으로 제시하였다.
The input-output analysis method was applied for forecasting the total Korean petrochemical outputs for the years of 1974, 1978, nd 1992. The methods of measuring the extent of impact of the growth of petrochemical industry on other industrial sectors, and vice versa, were developed mathematically by defining the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, and induced production. A simple method of forecasting the input coefficients and the elements of the final demand vectors, in absence of a sufficient amount of data, was also suggested. The computer analysis was carried out on a 90×90 technology matrix which was derived from a reorganized input-output table in which the original organic chemicals sector in the 1970 56-sectorial interindustry transactions table of the Bank of Korea was subdivided into 64 new major petrochemical products.

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