신 기후체제 출범에 따른 기후변화의 효율적 대응을 위해 정부는 분산형 전원의 확대를 모색하고 있다. 이 중 가스 열병합발전(CHP)을 중심으로 하는 집단에너지 시스템이 가장 현실적인 대안으로써 받아들여지고 있다. 한편 최근 발표된 8차 전력수급 기본계획을 통해 정부는 기저 발전 중심에서 친환경 발전 위주로 에너지 패러다임의 변화를 공표하였다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 에너지 패러다임의 변화가 CHP의 열 생산 패턴을 변화시켜 집단에너지 공헌이익에 미칠 수 있는 정량적인 손익 효과를 분석하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 상용화된 전력시장 종합분석 프로그램을 활용하여 7,8차 수급계획별 전력시장 장기 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 또한 현재 수도권에서 830 MW급 CHP를 운영중인 사업자의 실적을 활용하여 CHP 운전 Mode별로 전력생산량과 열 생산량을 산정할 수 있는 CHP 운영모델을 구성하였다. 이를 바탕으로 상용화된 집단에너지 최적운영 프로그램을 통해 CHP의 Life-Cycle 동안의 최대의 운영수익을 실현할 수 있는 운전 최적화를 수행하였다. 그 결과 정부의 에너지 패러다임의 변화는 CHP의 급전지시량을 증가시키고 이로 인해 열 생산원가가 하락하여 사업자의 공헌이익이 30년 동안 909억 증가함을 확인할 수 있었다.

To respond effectively to climate change following the launch of the new climate system, the government is seeking to expand the use of distributed power resources. Among them, the district heating system centered on Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is accepted as the most realistic alternative. On the other hand, the government recently announced the change of energy paradigm focusing on eco-friendly power generation from the base power generation through 8th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand(BPE). In this study, we analyzed the quantitative effects of profit and loss on the CHP operating business by changing patterns of the heat production, caused by the change of energy paradigm. To do this, the power market long-term simulation was carried out according to the 7th and 8th BPE respectively, using the commercialized power market integrated analysis program. In addition, the CHP operating model is organized to calculate the power and heat production level for each CHP operation mode by utilizing the operating performance of 830MW class CHP in Seoul metropolitan area. Based on this, the operation optimization is performed for realizing the maximum operating profit and loss during the life-cycle of CHP through the commercialized integrated energy optimization program. As a result, it can be seen that the change of the energy paradigm of the government increased the level of the ordered power supply by Korean Power Exchange(KPX), decreased the cost of the heat production, and increased the operating contribution margin by 90.9 billion won for the 30 years.

Energy optimization Combined heat and power Distributed power resources Long-term electricity supply and demand

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