탄소중립을 달성하기 위한 다양한 정책 및 프로젝트의 실효성을 평가하기 위하여 탄소순환 모델에 기반을 둔 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 모델은 산업혁명 이후 인류에 의한 탄소배출 및 삼림파괴 데이터로부터 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도 증 가와 지구평균기온 상승을 적절히 재현함으로써 유효성이 검증되었다. 사례연구로는 삼림벌채, 재식림 및 추가식림에 대한 탄소순환 영향평가를 수행하였다. 대기 중 이산화탄소의 증가는 화석연료사용뿐 아니라 삼림벌채의 영향도 크며, 벌채 직후 재식림을 해도 초기농도로의 복귀는 매우 오래 걸린다는 것이 확인되었다. 제안된 방법은 궁극적으로 미래 의 잠재적 기후제어 시뮬레이션에 활용됨으로써 다양한 기후공학 기술의 안전성 검증에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.

A carbon cycle model based method is proposed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of various policies and projects to achieve carbon neutrality. The proposed model was validated by properly reproducing the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the rise of the global average temperature from the data of anthropogenic carbon emissions and deforestation since the industrial revolution. As a case study, a carbon cycle impact assessment was performed for deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation. It was verified that the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is attributed not only to fossil fuel usage, but also to deforestation, and that even if deforestation is immediately followed by reforestation, it takes very long to return to the initial concentration. The proposed method is expected to be eventually applicable to simulation of potential climate control in the future, contributing to safety verification of various climate engineering techniques.

Carbon cycle Carbon neutrality Impact assessment Global warming Climate change

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